What does crapshoot mean?
A "crapshoot" is an informal noun describing any situation or endeavor whose outcome is wildly unpredictable and rests mainly on luck rather than skill, preparation, or careful planning. The word comes from the dice game craps, where results are determined purely by the roll of the dice, and it has broadened over time to characterize everything from job markets and elections to weather-dependent outdoor events. Calling something a crapshoot carries a note of resignation or wry humor: the speaker acknowledges that no amount of effort guarantees success, so one simply takes one's chances. It is most at home in casual conversation, opinion pieces, and sports commentary, particularly in North America, and writers aiming for a formal register usually prefer alternatives such as "gamble" or "lottery." Despite its slightly coarse origins, the word's vividness has made it a durable and expressive part of modern English.
nounA situation or undertaking whose outcome is highly uncertain and dependent largely on luck rather than skill or planning; a gamble.
- A risky or uncertain venture whose outcome depends chiefly on chance.
- (Less common) The game of craps itself.
"Launching a startup in a saturated market can feel like a total crapshoot."
"Getting a table at that restaurant on a Friday night is a real crapshoot."
"He treated the stock market like a crapshoot instead of doing any research."
The plural follows regular English noun formation and is used when referring to multiple distinct uncertain situations.
"Startups are crapshoots by nature — most fail regardless of how promising they seem."
Born at the craps table, "crapshoot" escaped the casino to describe everything from job interviews to weather forecasts — proof that American slang travels fast.
Reviewed by Deb Chak, Editor. AI-assisted content curated by RJS Tech Solutions LLP.
Etymology of crapshoot
"Crapshoot" originated in American English in the early twentieth century, formed directly from "crap" and "shoot" as a name for a round of the dice game craps, which had itself developed from an older game called hazard brought to America by French settlers. By the mid-twentieth century the term had acquired its now-dominant figurative sense of any chancy, unpredictable undertaking, and this extended use spread widely through American speech and writing. Its cognates are essentially the words of the craps tradition itself: "craps" and "crap," both ultimately tied to the same gambling vocabulary.
How crapshoot is actually used
Informal and colloquial, especially common in North American English. Because it derives from "craps," some consider it mildly vulgar or too casual for formal writing, though it appears freely in journalism and everyday speech.
Easily confused with crapshoot
"Craps" is the actual dice game, while "crapshoot" is a figurative noun for any risky, luck-dependent situation.